The water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia has been overshadowed by rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, with the issue described by Cairo as an existe…
The water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia has been overshadowed by rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, with the issue described by Cairo as an existential threat only one thread in a complex web of regional rivalries, experts quoted by the National newspaper say. Egypt’s drive to pressure Ethiopia over the 15-year-old dispute has not waned. The North African country is expanding its military presence in the Horn of Africa and is blocking Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain access to the Red Sea coast.
Egypt, one of the world’s driest countries, insists that the giant Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile, will reduce its share of water and threaten millions of agricultural jobs. The hydroelectric facility, completed last year, has not yet affected the volume of water downstream, thanks to heavy rains in the Ethiopian Plateau, where the Nile’s largest tributary, the Blue Nile, originates. Cairo, however, worries that in the event of a prolonged drought, Ethiopia may not allow enough water to reach Sudan and Egypt, BTA notes.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has ruled out military action to resolve the dispute, but his government has demonstrated its military power in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden off the coast of the Horn of Africa and secured access to ports and supply facilities for its southern fleet in Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti, which are Ethiopia’s neighbors.
Cairo also expects US President Donald Trump to fulfill a promise made at the beginning of his second term to mediate in the dispute with Ethiopia, a topic that has been overshadowed by Washington’s war with Iran.
According to experts, the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia has moved beyond the dam and its possible impact on Egypt’s water share to a more complex phase of regional tension with the potential to escalate into open hostilities.
“The current situation in the Horn of Africa region creates new conditions in which the dam issue, while still central, is linked to a larger and more important geostrategic picture,” said retired diplomat Mohamed Hegazi, who is an expert on Nile-related issues. It includes risks to freedom of navigation and security in the Red Sea and Ethiopia’s ambition to have a military and commercial base there through the breakaway region of Somaliland, he explained.
Tensions between longtime enemies Eritrea and Ethiopia are another factor, along with the civil war in Sudan, which has increased its potential to draw countries in the region into the conflict. The Sudanese government, backed by the army, accuses Ethiopia, as well as Kenya and some factions in Libya, of supporting the paramilitary “Rapid Support Force” with which it is at odds.
“The water issue must be seen beyond the Ethiopian dam,” Hegazi said. “It must be part of a broader vision in which security in the Red Sea and the equitable distribution of Nile waters are linked and guaranteed.”
Statements by Ethiopian officials that their country will build more dams on the Blue Nile have further intensified in Cairo.
Analysts say Egypt has no choice but to increase pressure on Ethiopia, to continue its active lobbying on the international and regional stage against granting Addis Ababa a permanent outlet to the Red Sea, and to deter it by strengthening its military presence in a region it has long considered its dominant sphere of influence.
Egypt is pushing for a legally binding agreement with Ethiopia that would allow Egyptian and Sudanese experts to participate in managing the dam. Cairo has also campaigned to deepen cooperation with the other ten Nile basin countries on water-sharing and river-related projects.
Ethiopia has refused outside involvement in managing the dam, while trying to reassure Egypt and Sudan that the facility will not harm them. During Trump’s first term, Addis Ababa refused to sign a US-brokered agreement on the dam.
“Egypt now wants Ethiopia to either sign a dam agreement or face a major internal crisis,” says Michael Hanna of the International Crisis Group think tank. “It’s very difficult to imagine at this stage how the US could force Ethiopia to back down on the dam,” he notes.
Hanna cites Washington’s engagement with Iran, President Trump’s focus on midterm elections later this year, and the likelihood that Addis Ababa will receive strong support from its regional allies as reasons. “In addition, many are concerned that the overall state of the Horn of Africa and the realignment of alliances in the region could lead to the outbreak of another war, possibly between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” Hanna says. “These new alliances in the Horn of Africa, of which Egypt is now a part, have left their mark on every part of the region.”
Illustrative photo: pexels-frans-van-heerden-201846-2699258
