John McCain spoke of Russia as a “filling station”. We are turning it into an empty canister, said Ukrainian expert Olexandr Kovalenko.
Russia’s capital is facing unprecedented pressure on its energy infrastructure. Is this a turning point? And what scenarios await the war in Ukraine?
We put these questions to military expert Olexandr Kovalenko from Odesa.
According to him, Ukraine now has to use its window of opportunity before Russia is able to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a new mobilisation wave in the coming months.
Are we witnessing a turning point?
Yes, it can be said that we are indeed observing serious changes in the combat zone, which are linked to several factors. The first is the exhaustion of Russian forces. Since 2023, Ukraine has apparently managed to wear them down to a level where the Russian army is fighting mainly with its infantry component. Today we are dealing above all with the human resources of the adversary.
The defensive strategy that Ukraine chose as its basis in 2023 took shape after the Russians went on the offensive near Avdiivka and, as a result of the aid blockade in Congress, the United States in effect delayed support for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel for half a year. This caused an ammunition shortage for Ukraine, so we were forced to adopt a defensive posture and switch to a defensive-type strategy. At the same time, however, the goal of this strategy was not only to hold the front line, but also to slow down and exhaust the enemy as much as possible.
Why is this campaign only happening now?
It has unfolded at the very moment when the adversary is exhausted and Ukraine has gained a technological edge and dominance. Above all, this is linked to the use of medium-range drone technologies and to scaling up the impact on Russian logistics. The huge mass of Russian occupation forces, which today is concentrated mainly in the infantry component, finds itself in a difficult situation because it does not have sufficient and timely logistics.
Strikes against battlefield logistics are crucial for us not only to force the Russians to halt their offensive, but also to make them lose the ability to defend themselves effectively. In some sectors we can already speak of a crisis in Russian defence, which opens up opportunities for the Ukrainian army to move to counter-actions.
Which weapons are key in these attacks?
For medium-range and deeper strikes, Hornet, RAM-2X, Darts, Bulava drones and some other modifications are mainly used. Hornets are among the most widespread.
What about the use of AI? Has it raised Ukrainian pressure to a higher level?
The use of artificial intelligence undoubtedly helps in conditions where Russian electronic-warfare systems are operating and in situations when a drone loses its signal. Thanks to artificial intelligence, at a certain point it can operate autonomously, independently select targets and carry out tasks even after losing control from the operator. Overall, the use of artificial intelligence has significantly increased the effectiveness of strikes compared with the level at which the Russians find themselves today, and has become an integral part of Ukraine’s technological success.
To what extent are intelligence inputs from Western secret services important in this?
They are very important. They help to plan individual operations and make it possible to verify information about a specific facility: whether it is really being used for the purpose for which it is known, whether it is, for example, a school for training drone operators, a production site or a storage facility. If it is a warehouse, it is important to understand what exactly is stored there: supplies, ammunition, fuel, lubricants or other resources.
Is there a broader strategy behind the attacks on Russian cities?
Ukraine is not attacking Russian cities as such. The strikes target the production capacities and facilities located in them. In one city this may be an oil refinery, in another a munitions factory, a plant producing equipment, a research institute, an oil depot, an oil storage site, a logistics hub. Our goal is not to attack cities, but to destroy specific elements of Russia’s industrial and military infrastructure.
“Ukraine’s strategy consists of the gradual destruction of individual categories of Russian industry – oil refining, the military‑industrial sector, chemicals“
What is the main objective?
The priority is the complete destruction of the Russian Federation’s oil-refining sector. Another important direction is the destruction of the Russian military‑industrial complex. Many enterprises that do not formally appear to belong to it in fact supply it with their output, for example chemical components. A strike on a chemical plant that seemingly has no direct link to the military sphere can therefore be fully justified if its products are used in rocket fuel, in the manufacture of explosives for warheads of missile systems, shells and other production. Ukraine’s strategy consists of the gradual destruction of individual categories of Russian industry – oil refining, the military‑industrial sector, chemicals – as well as in targeting Russia’s scientific base, especially research institutes where new types of weapons and military technologies are developed.
Who are the main figures behind the current campaign against Russian targets?
It cannot be said that there is one key figure behind this campaign. It is the collective effort of defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Kyrylo Budanov, representatives of the presidential administration, as well as Robert Brovdi “Madyar”, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. The actions of the general staff leadership, the intelligence services and representatives of all Ukrainian security structures are also important. We are therefore talking about the collective work of many people in shaping the right strategy to exhaust Russia not only on the battlefield, but also in the rear. And we see that this strategy is working.
How is it possible that Russian air defence cannot keep up? Is it running out of missiles?
