BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 15. Azerbaijan’s
economic growth in 2025 slowed down by 4.1% compared to 2024, which
was driven by the decline in oil production and softer growth in
the non-oil sector, as the boost from past public investments
faded, and the indirect effects of lower hydrocarbon prices had
knock-on effects across the economy, Anna Rose Bordon, head of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in the country, told
Trend.
According to the mission head, inflation rose last year mainly
due to external factors that pushed up food prices, but we expect
it to remain within the central bank’s target range in the medium
term.
“We currently forecast Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to slow further
to 2.5% in 2026 and to stabilize around that level over the next
few years. This moderate growth outlook reflects gradually
declining oil production and weaker domestic demand, as oil prices
remain lower than in recent years, while fiscal policy remains
prudent. We will publish updated forecasts in April, at the time of
the Spring Meetings,” Bordon said.
Data from Azerbaijan’s State Statistics Committee show that GDP
amounted to 116.32 billion manat ($68.4 billion) from January
through November 2025, up 1.6% year on year.
Value added in the oil and gas sector fell by 1.8% over the
period, while the non-oil and gas sector grew by 3.2%, highlighting
continued divergence between the country’s energy and non-energy
segments.
Industry accounted for 34% of GDP, followed by trade and vehicle
repair at 10.6%, transport and storage at 7.2%, construction at
6.5%, agriculture, forestry, and fishing at 6.4%, accommodation and
food services at 2.8%, and information and communications at 1.9%.
Other sectors made up 21.1% of GDP, while net taxes on products and
imports accounted for 9.5%.
GDP per capita stood at 11,356 manat ($6,680).
