The Insider Report: The Fed Accelerates the Uptrend – Domo (NASDAQ:DOMO), e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF)

September 22, 2025

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Market Overview

The Fed cut rates, and stocks, which were already in an uptrend as extensively noted here, accelerated to new all-time highs. We continue to see technology leading to the upside, which confirms the risk-on environment. The Nasdaq led the rally higher last week, closing up 2.21%. The S&P 500 followed, closing up 1.22%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.05%. There are still strong opportunities coming from China, which is set to benefit from dollar weakness and lower rates.

Stocks I Like

Domo DOMO – 50% Return Potential

What’s Happening

Domo, Inc. (DOMO) is a leading cloud-based software company providing business intelligence and data visualization solutions, enabling organizations to manage and analyze data effectively, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing business analytics and digital transformation sector with a focus on data-driven decision-making.
The company’s most recent quarterly report showed revenue of $79.72 million and earnings only of $879 thousand.
This valuation on DOMO is mixed. Price-to-Sales is reasonably high at 2.16 but Book Value is negative at -4.64.
At a technical level, DOMO is seeking to breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, which points to a continuation of the trend.

Why It’s Happening

Domo’s strategic partnerships with major cloud providers like Snowflake and AWS have been expanded recently, amplifying the platform’s data integration capabilities. These alliances significantly enhance Domo’s product ecosystem and create competitive moats, enabling it to capture a larger share of the growing enterprise data analytics market.
The company was recently ranked #1 vendor in Dresner Advisory Services’ 2025 Wisdom of Crowds Agentic AI Report, validating its leadership in the high-growth AI and analytics market. This recognition can boost brand reputation and attract new enterprise clients prioritizing AI-powered insights, which bodes well for long-term top-line growth and investor sentiment.
Analysts remain optimistic with four buy ratings and no sell ratings, underpinned by a price target range averaging $18.50, implying an upside of roughly 18.7% from current levels. Analyst optimism lends additional credibility to Domo’s growth story and can drive increased institutional interest, both of which support a positive stock outlook.
Despite a historically high forward P/E ratio reflecting near-term profitability challenges, the company’s ongoing shift to positive earnings, improving margins, and robust cash flows signal an inflection point. Investors who buy in now stand to benefit from both fundamental improvements and multiple expansion.
The company’s Subscription Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to $409.8 million as of July 31, 2025, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase. This metric represents contracted future revenue and is a strong indicator of sustained customer commitment and revenue visibility beyond just the current quarter.
Domo reported a strong second quarter of fiscal 2026 with total revenue reaching $79.7 million, slightly outpacing its prior quarter and showing resilience amid market uncertainty.
Analyst Ratings:
- JMP Securities: Market Outperform
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight

My Action Plan (50% Return Potential)

I am bullish on DOMO above $14.25-$14.00. My upside target is $27.00-$28.00.

elf Beauty ELF – 50% Return Potential

What’s Happening

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is a leading cosmetics company offering affordable, trend-driven makeup and skincare products, providing investors exposure to the rapidly growing beauty and personal care sector with a focus on accessible, high-quality, and socially engaged branding.
In the last quarterly report, ELF showed revenue of $353.74 million and earnings of $51.33 million.
Valuation is very high. P/E is at 85.42, Price-to-Sales is at 6.24, and EV to EBITDA is at 39.09.
From a technical perspective, ELF is breaking out from a massive cup and handle formation. I’m looking for bullish momentum to accelerate greatly in the coming weeks.

Why It’s Happening

The acquisition of Rhode for $800 million marks a strategic expansion into the fast-growing skincare segment with a premium brand founded by Hailey Bieber. This acquisition diversifies e.l.f.’s portfolio, enhances its international growth prospects, and offers potential cross-selling synergies, all likely to drive long-term shareholder value and prudent stock re-rating.
e.l.f. Beauty is actively diversifying its supply chain, reducing China dependence from nearly 100% to about 75%. This strategy mitigates risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, ensuring more stable margins and supply continuity. Such operational resilience will be viewed favorably by investors wary of global trade disruptions.
e.l.f. Beauty is pioneering AI initiatives across social media marketing, IT support, and operations, positioning itself at the forefront of tech adoption in cosmetics retail. These AI innovations can drive cost savings, enhanced consumer targeting, and personalized experiences, which could accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion.
Despite a small revenue miss relative to forecasts, adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $87 million, highlighting strong operating leverage and efficient expense management. This margin expansion in a challenging environment signals management’s disciplined approach, reassuring investors that profitability can improve even without booming top-line growth.
The company’s Q1 net sales grew by 9% year-over-year to $354 million, driven primarily by a robust 30% increase in international sales and a 5% rise in U.S. sales.
e.l.f. Beauty delivered a strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings beat with an EPS of $0.89, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.84 by about 6%.
Analyst Ratings:
- Raymond James: Strong Buy
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight

My Action Plan (50% Return Potential)

I am bullish on ELF above $120.00-$122.00. My upside target is $210.00-$220.00.

Rigetti Computing RGTI – 14% Return Potential

What’s Happening

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is a pioneering quantum computing company developing advanced quantum processors and software, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing quantum technology sector with a focus on scalable, high-performance computing solutions.
The company’s recent quarterly report showed revenue at $1.8 million and a loss of $16.84 million.
Valuation in RGTI is up in the clouds. Price-to-Sales is at 604.95, and the Book Value is just 1.71.
From a charting point of view, RGTI broke out from an absolutely massive cup and handle formation. The quantum story isn’t finished, folks.

Why It’s Happening

Rigetti secured a significant $5.8 million, three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory focused on advancing superconducting quantum networking technology. This partnership not only provides steady government funding but also establishes Rigetti as a trusted partner in critical national security technology, likely increasing credibility and opening doors for future contracts that could drive long-term revenue growth.
Rigetti’s innovative quantum processor, the Cepheus-1-36Q, features 36 qubits using a multi-chiplet architecture with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. This cutting-edge technology represents a leap forward in qubit performance and scalability, positioning Rigetti as a leader in superconducting quantum computing.
Rigetti’s modular chiplet approach to quantum computing architecture, which interconnects multiple smaller chips rather than relying on single large chips, addresses key scalability challenges in the quantum industry. This architectural innovation is increasingly recognized as a more viable path to large-scale quantum computers, enhancing Rigetti’s competitive positioning against rivals who face limitations with single-chip expansions.
The company strengthened its financial position dramatically in 2025, completing sales of $350 million in gross proceeds from common stock offerings and boosting its cash and cash equivalents to $571.6 million with no debt.
Despite revenue challenges with Q2 2025 revenue of $1.8 million declining 42% year-over-year due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative, Rigetti’s sequential quarterly revenue growth (+20%) indicates ear
Analyst Ratings:

My Action Plan (14% Return Potential)

I am bullish on RGTI above $22.00-$23.00. My upside target is $32.00-$33.00.

Market-Moving Catalysts for the Week Ahead

A Falling Rate Environment is Here – What’s Next?

Here we have it – the Fed cut interest rates 25-basis points. Long-term bond yields are dropping faster than short-term yields, as I’ll explain later on in this report. But we’re seeing signs of a refinance boom that could boost the economy and carry stocks to new highs.

But as I’ve been warning, the Fed is playing with inflationary fire. At some point, it will make it’s dreaded return, and that’s when the Fed and even the Department of Treasury is going to be put in a pinch.

I’m not ruling out yield curve control (YCC) coming to the United States in a couple of years. There really won’t be another choice, and if there is any hope of managing (not sustaining) the federal debt, it’s the only tangible solution.

Sentiment Follows Price, Not the Other Way Around

The market’s recent price action is an excellent reminder of how corrections can take place through time instead of price. And during this “time,” all sorts of reasons to be bearish will come to the surface.

Now that we’ve broken out to new all-time highs, and the market has come to term with interest rates falling, we’re starting to see bullish sentiment rise to its highest level in months. If anything, this warns not to chase this rally.

Does this mean we’re automatically going lower? On the contrary. But we need to think in terms of risk-reward. Nobody knows what the market is going to do, and anyone that pretends like they do is someone you should avoid. The trend is up, but near-term, the crowd has realized they were wrong and are now panic buying into new all-time highs.

Sector & Industry Strength

The tape doesn’t lie. We saw new all-time highs last week across the board after the Fed cut rates, and once again, the standout sector was technology (XLK). It’s no surprise to see stocks so strong with all of the right growth-oriented sectors outperforming.

Meanwhile, all of the defensive sectors continue to do poorly. When we’re seeing healthcare (XLV), consumer staples (XLP), energy (XLE), and utilities (XLU) all in the bottom half of the sector rankings, you know that the market is pricing in more growth.

Now we need to be thinking about which sectors are likely to do well under a falling rate environment. It’s going to keep helping tech, but we should also watching consumer discretionary (XLY) and real estate (XLRE) as well.

1 week	3 Weeks	13 Weeks	26 Weeks
Technology	Communications	Communications	Technology

Editor’s Note: It’s Tech’s Market – We’re Just Trading It.

Where’s the “New Money” Going? (Sector ETF: DBC/SPY)

We’re in a falling interest rate environment now. The Federal Reserve is cutting, which means that money is being printed. This “new money” is going to have to find a home somewhere, and odds favor it going into stocks.

But it’s not just going to go into stocks. With the Fed playing with inflationary fire, we have to look at the commodity sector, because that is what drives inflationary pressures the most. This is why I’m looking at the ratio between commodities (DBC) and the S&P 500 (SPY) this week.

It’s been a pretty clear downtrend for the past couple of years. In other words, commodities have underperformed as inflation has cooled. But we need to keep an eye on this ratio, especially if it clears the upper trendline of the channel. Because if it does, we could start to see inflation become a very real risk in 2026.

Are You Prepared for an Era of Chinese Tech Dominance? (Sector ETF: CQQQ/QQQ)

I cannot stress enough the importance of this ratio. People have been in love with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) here in the United States for years. But let’s never forget that this is a global market, and the best opportunities won’t always be stateside.

The emergence of the Chinese tech sector (CQQQ) as a serious contender in the AI arms race cannot be understated. And if we look at this ratio between CQQQ and QQQ, we would be wise to not ignore the sector at all.

The rounding bottom pattern on this chart means business. If it breaks above resistance, I’d be much more focused on what’s going on in the Chinese tech sector than in the U.S. tech sector. Many will be reluctant to pursue it, which will make it all the stronger of a trend.

What Rate Cuts Mean for Bonds (Sector ETF: BIL/TLT)

It’s starting to happen. We’re seeing long-term bonds accelerating in their recent outperformance against short-term bonds, which is only going to force the Fed to continue cutting until inflation becomes a problem.

I’m looking at the ratio here between short-term Treasury Bills (BIL) and long-term Treasuries (TLT). I want to draw your attention to the false-breakout from the triangle formation back in May that also ended up being a lower-high.

This signaled that the tide could be turning and lower interest rates were coming. If the trend is about to turn down, it will mean that TLT is shaping up for an excellent trade, not investment, over the next several months.

My Take:

I want to be clear and differentiate between a trade and investment on the TLT side of things. The debt crisis in Washington is serious. We know this already. But rates are coming down for the next year or so, and typically, longer duration outperforms in such an environment.

But once inflation rears its ugly head again, TLT, or bonds with longer duration, will get hammered the most. I would then expect this ratio to start climbing back to the upside, but until then, duration is the trade here.