Growing political polarisation means that debate about immigration is boiled down to ‘pro’ or ‘anti’-immigration positions, but new surveys reveal that European public opinion is a little more nuanced than that.
Immigration to Europe has increased in recent years, both in terms of real numbers and, as a result, in terms of its potency in political debate.
Eurostat data shows that 44.7 million people living in the EU in 2024 were foreigners.
In 2022 5.1 million non-EU migrants arrived in Europe, over double the 2.4 million that came in 2021, and migration is blamed by some for crime and underlying structural pressures in healthcare and housing, something that attracts voters, including many younger ones, to anti-migrant parties.
In response, governments across Europe are pushing immigration crackdowns — and with it, residency and citizenship restrictions — and in countries like France, Germany and Spain anti-immigrant parties have been rising in the polls and poised to play key roles in upcoming elections.
This rhetoric often conflates legal and illegal migrants and reduces debate to binaries: migration is entirely good or bad, people are unequivocally pro or anti-immigration, and there’s no room for nuance.
But surveys suggest most people don’t actually think in these absolutes.
So what do Europeans think about immigration, beyond the binaries?
Advertisement
Europeans want reductions but overestimate illegal migration
YouGov recently studied attitudes towards immigration in Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Denmark and Poland.
In broad terms, it found that Europeans want greater immigration controls but aren’t completely anti-immigration. Some of their beliefs, however, are based on misconceptions.
Matt Smith, head of data journalism at YouGov, tells The Local: “Our data indicates that Europeans aren’t rejecting immigration outright, but their views on the subject are shaped by the fact they tend to believe there are more illegal than legal migrants in their country, and that is feeding a sense that the system is being abused.”
YouGov found that across Europe “there is a tendency to believe that there are more illegal than legal migrants”.
Asked if the UK had more illegal or legal migrants, 32 percent of Brits answered “much more staying illegally than legally”.
In France that figure was 41 percent; in Italy 34 percent; and in Germany 26 percent.
These assumptions frame debate but are far removed from reality.
In Spain, for example, where 38 percent believe there are more illegal immigrants, there are only around 800,000 undocumented migrants out of nearly 9 million foreigners.
Similar misconceptions were common in other countries polled.
Advertisement
Many respondents supported “scenarios that see significant reductions in inflows” (crackdowns, in other words) and “approximately half in each country surveyed (45-53 percent) say they support a scenario where not only are no new migrants permitted, but large numbers of recent migrants are required to leave” — mass deportations.
When asked about deportations, 53 percent of Germans backed the idea, followed by the French and Italians (51 percent) and the Danes (50 percent).
The mood, YouGov says, seems clear: “Europeans are overwhelmingly opposed to a large increase in the number of new migrants allowed to come to their country”.
Interestingly, there’s evidence that migrants themselves embrace anti-immigration positions over time. Research from the EUI has found that although “immigrants’ attitudes toward immigration are on average more favourable compared to non-migrants’ attitudes… they tend to become more negative with time spent in the country”.
This is also inter-generational, with second-generation migrants less favourable to immigration. For some it’s an uncomfortable truth that migrants might support controls on immigration — in the UK, notably, almost 40 percent of British-Indians voted for Brexit .
Advertisement
Europeans back economic benefits over deportations
Nonetheless, the data reveals that Europeans ultimately back the benefits of legal migration over crackdowns and deportations.
“Even those who advocate large scale deportations broadly think it is the rule-breakers who should be removed, not legal immigrants, and when asked about trade-offs tend to prioritise preserving the health service and attracting skilled talent over reducing migration,” Smith explains.
The study concluded that “in almost all cases Europeans are less likely to choose to reduce immigration and accept its downsides over the alternative trade-off”.
This is perhaps best exemplified in Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni remains rhetorically tough on illegal migration but has conceded to economic reality and will issue 500,000 visas for non-EU workers in the coming years.
This was reflected in the data. YouGov found that respondents who support deportations focused on perceived ‘rule breakers’ claiming benefits (78-91 percent) or entering illegally to seek asylum (73-85 percent) rather than legal migrants making a contribution.
Put simply, Europeans clearly want a reduction in immigration but understand the benefits that legal migration brings.
A tough balance for governments to strike, and the issue isn’t going away anytime soon either, Smith feels.
“That all being said,” he concludes, “there are significant concerns that even legal migrants do not share national values, and are not being integrated successfully, suggesting that even if the rule-breaking and economic issues are addressed, concerns about immigration would still persist”.
Advertisement
What’s happening around Europe?
The European Commission could allow non-EU professionals to stay beyond the current 90/180-day rule, and we looked at which nationalities get the most EU Blue Cards and where they go.
A new rule that effectively excludes foreign retirees from becoming French has led to a significant fall in naturalisations.
In Sweden, the opposition Social Democrats won’t join other parties to reinstate an abolished law to stop teen deportations. The team also went through twelve new migration laws the government wants to pass before the September election.
Denmark will expel non-Danish citizens who have served prison terms of a year or more for serious crimes.
Again bucking the trend, Spain is to regularise over 500,000 undocumented migrants, while the Norwegian government has presented the “most significant overhaul in integration policy” in 20 years.
Germany has frozen applications for integration courses, while the team explored why the far-right AfD wants American-style ICE deportation squads and how net immigration fell by 40 percent last year.
Italy, however, has vowed there will be no police role for ICE at its Winter Olympics.
And finally, readers of The Local told us how Switzerland’s ‘no to 10 million’ vote would be a “catalyst for hatred of foreigners”.
